New York/India – The global cotton market exhibited mixed trends through the second quarter of 2025, influenced by geopolitical tensions, tariff concerns, and seasonal agricultural developments.
In the U.S., NY May Futures plunged sharply in early April after tariff announcements rattled market confidence. However, a gradual recovery followed, with the contract ultimately expiring in the 66–67 cents per pound range. NY July Futures, representing the final month of the old crop, remained subdued, confined within a narrow band of 65–69 cents throughout the quarter. Ongoing conflict and weak global demand kept pressure on prices, limiting volatility.
Meanwhile, in India, the cotton physical market displayed early resilience in April. However, persistent offloading by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) capped prices between ₹53,800 and ₹54,200 through May and June. A shift in sentiment occurred in late June as tensions in the Middle East eased, particularly with the resolution of the Iran-Israel conflict. The improved outlook spurred robust CCI sales, with 21 lakh bales sold over six auctions in a short span, igniting a rally in the domestic market.
Agricultural developments also brought optimism. The monsoon arrived early on May 25, and timely rainfall supported a prompt start to kharif sowing. By the end of June, Gujarat had covered 13.99 lakh hectares under cotton, contributing to an all-India total of 50.214 lakh hectares.
Market participants remain cautiously optimistic as easing geopolitical tensions and favorable monsoon conditions offer potential support for the upcoming crop season, though global demand and tariff dynamics will continue to be key factors in price direction.
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