The past month has seen a modest increase in Cotlook’s forecast of raw cotton output in the 2021/22 season, entirely attributable to improved performance in the African Franc Zone. Consumption was also increased, by 25,000 tonnes overall, owing to shifts in the assessments of demand in Far Eastern markets outside China. The result is that world stocks by the end of the current season are now expected to decrease by 229,000 tonnes, compared to 219,000 a month ago.
Production estimates for 2022/23 were unchanged, while consumption was subject to a further reduction arising from another cut for Vietnam. Global cotton stocks by July 31, 2023 are thus forecast to increase by 515,000 tonnes year on year, up from 465,000 in our March estimate.
