India is headed for its driest August in more than a century, partly due to the El Nino weather pattern that is likely to bring deficient rainfall over large areas, two meteorological officials said on Friday.
August rains, expected to be the lowest since records began in 1901, could hurt yields of summer-sown crops, from rice to soybeans, pushing up prices and raising overall food inflation , which has become the highest in July since January 2020.
The monsoon, vital to the $3-trillion economy, provides about 70% of the rain needed in India to water farms and replenish reservoirs and aquifers.
A senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) official said on condition of anonymity, "The monsoon is not reviving as we had expected."
"We're going to end the month with a huge deficit in the southern, western and central parts." He said, based on the rainfall so far and expectations for the rest of the month, India is likely to receive less than 180 mm (7 inches) of average rainfall this month.
The Met officials are expected to announce the total rainfall in August and forecast for September on August 31 or September 1.
India received just 90.7 mm (3.6 in) of rain in the first 17 days of August, about 40% less than normal. The normal average for the month is 254.9 mm (10 inches), he said.
Earlier, the IMD had projected a rainfall deficit of up to 8% in August. The least rainfall in August on record was in 2005 with 191.2 mm (7.5 in).
Another IMD official said that monsoon rains are expected to improve in the northeast and some central regions in the next two weeks, but the northwestern and southern states are likely to remain dry.
"Normally, we experience dry weather for five to seven days in August," the official said on condition of anonymity.
"However, this year the dry season in southern India has been unusually long. The El Nino weather pattern has started to affect the Indian monsoon." El Nino, the warming of waters that usually inhibits rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, has emerged in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years.
This monsoon has been uneven, with June receiving 10% below average rainfall, but July rains again being 13% above average.
Summer rains are important because almost half of India's agricultural land lacks irrigation.
Farmers usually start planting other crops, including rice, maize, cotton, soybean, sugarcane and groundnut, from June 1, when the monsoon begins to hit the southern state of Kerala.
Harish Gallipelli, director of trading firm ILA Commodities India Pvt Ltd, said the prolonged drought has resulted in extremely low soil moisture, which can hamper the growth of crops.
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