The India Meteorological Office has predicted normal monsoon rainfall in 2023. However, there is a 90% chance of an El Niño weather pattern developing during the June-September monsoon season, increasing the likelihood of below-normal rainfall.
In the past, India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El Niño years, sometimes causing severe droughts that destroy crops and force authorities to limit exports of certain food grains.
What is El Nino? How does it affect the monsoon of India?
El Niño is a meteorological phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean exceed normal. The warming causes changes in atmospheric patterns, leading to a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent. As a result, the Indian monsoon becomes weaker and less reliable during El Nino years.
How close is the relationship between El Nino and monsoon rains?
The relationship between El Niño and Indian monsoon rainfall is significant, despite occasional instances when India receives normal or above-normal rainfall during El Niño years. In the past seven decades, El Nino weather patterns occurred 15 times, with India receiving normal or above-normal rainfall six times. However, an opposite trend has emerged in the last four El Nino years, with India experiencing persistent drought conditions and rainfall falling below 90% of the long-term average.
El Niño events are classified as weak, moderate, or strong according to the magnitude of the temperature increase above normal.
In 2009, a weak El Niño led to a significant deficit in India's rainfall, which fell 78.2% below normal, the lowest recorded in 37 years. In contrast, in 1997, a strong El Niño occurred, yet India received 102% of its normal rainfall. Weather models are suggesting that the 2023 El Niño could be stronger.
Why is monsoon important?
The monsoon is crucial to India, providing about 70% of the annual rainfall and affecting major crops such as rice, wheat, sugarcane, soybeans and groundnuts. Agriculture accounts for about 19% of India's $3 trillion economy and employs more than half of its 1.4 billion population.
The impact of the monsoon extends beyond agriculture, affecting the wider economy. Adequate rainfall boosts overall economic growth, helping to control food price inflation, which has risen recently, and increased lending rates.
An increase in agricultural production could also ease export restrictions on sugar, wheat and rice. In contrast, a drought requires importing food and maintaining export restrictions. In 2009, bad rains forced India to import sugar, pushing global prices to record highs.
How does monsoon affect inflation and central bank policy?
Food accounts for nearly half of India's consumer price index, which the central bank closely monitors when deciding on monetary policy. India received normal or above-normal rainfall for four straight years, yet prices of cereals, dairy products and pulses have jumped in recent months and forced the Reserve Bank of India to sharply hike lending rates .
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