Key Highlights: CAI National Crop Committee Meeting – 18/06/25

CAI National Crop Review – 18 June 2025

India’s Cotton Production: Revised upward by 9.80 lakh bales to 301.15 lakh bales (170 kg each).

State-wise Production Increases:

* Upper Rajasthan: +0.50 lakh bales (10.10)
* Lower Rajasthan: +1.00 lakh bales (9.40)
* North India: +1.30 lakh bales (28.80)
* Gujarat: +5.00 lakh bales (76.00)
* Maharashtra: +3.00 lakh bales (85.00)
* Andhra Pradesh: +0.50 lakh bales (11.50)

Cotton Consumption: Reduced by 2 lakh bales to 307 lakh bales due to:

* Shift to polyester/viscose (esp. in South India)
* Labour shortages slowing mill operations
* Higher realization from viscose (98%) vs. cotton (73–75%)

Trade Updates:

* Exports: Up by 2 lakh bales (to 17 lakh); 15.25 lakh bales exported till May.
* Imports: Increased by 6 lakh bales (to 39 lakh); 26.25 lakh bales received till May; ~3.25 lakh bales arriving monthly.

Closing Stock: Expected to rise to 48.34 lakh bales by 30/09/25 – highest in years.

Pressing & Arrivals (Oct–May):

* Total arrivals: 285.09 lakh bales
* Daily average pressing: 1.16 lakh bales
* Consumption in 8 months: 208 lakh bales (~26 lakh/month)

Mill Stocks (as of 31/05/25):

* In-mill: 33 lakh bales (45-day avg. stock)
* North: 60–75 days
* South & Central: 30 days
* Trade stock: 85.28 lakh bales
* With CCI: 79.21 lakh (70.21 unsold, 9.01 sold but pending lift)

Government Estimate: Revised 2024–25 production down by 5 lakh bales to 294.25 lakh bales (as of 10 March).

Outlook:

* CCI may carry forward 25–30 lakh bales to next season due to weak domestic futures and high imports.
* Maharashtra yield halved due to poor weather, especially in Khandesh.
* Telangana pressing expected to rise to 48 lakh bales (from 30 & 15 in past years).
* Cotton sowing likely to increase 5–7% due to higher MSP (₹8,110) and timely rains.
* Early arrivals expected from September 15 in North & South India.
* Industry awaits India–US trade deal; focus on duty-free import quotas.

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