India-Canada CEPA expected to increase trade: Rubix Data Sciences
By yash chouhan 2026-03-05 16:52:54
Proposed India-Canada CEPA can boost goods trade: Rubix Data Sciences
A proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Canada could significantly strengthen bilateral trade by reducing tariffs and improving market access, according to Rubix Data Sciences.
The agreement is expected to benefit sectors such as pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, textiles, and agricultural products, while also ensuring more reliable imports of key resources like pulses and fertilisers.
Rubix Data Sciences noted that beyond lowering tariffs, CEPA could deepen supply chain integration, encourage services and investment flows, and create a more stable and diversified trade framework. These improvements could help transform the currently cyclical nature of India–Canada trade into sustained long-term growth.
Bilateral trade between the two countries increased from $6.9 billion in FY22 to $8.7 billion in FY25, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 8%, largely driven by stronger import growth.
However, the sharp fall in imports during the first nine months of FY26 led to a 13% contraction in total trade, highlighting India’s sensitivity to commodity import cycles.
Despite these fluctuations, the overall trade balance between India and Canada has remained broadly neutral, shifting between surplus and deficit over the years. India recorded a surplus in FY22, deficits from FY23 to FY25, and a surplus again in FY26 so far.
This pattern reflects the complementary nature of bilateral trade, where India exports value-added manufactured goods while importing primary commodities, resulting in cyclical movements rather than a persistent structural imbalance.
