Cotton output likely to be higher despite drop in area, excess rain
India’s cotton production during 2025-26, starting in October, is likely to be better than last year, despite a decline in the cropping area in key producing States of Maharashtra and Gujarat, and the excess August rain affecting the standing crop in some States.
Timely and widespread rain this year and lower incidence of pest attacks have raised the prospects of higher yields, thereby leading to likely expansion of the overall crop size, according to the trade.
Farmers reduced the cotton area this year in Gujarat and Maharashtra, as they found alternatives such as maize, groundnut and pulses to be remunerative. Cotton sowing has ended and the overall acreage is down by 2.53 per cent at 109.64 lakh hectares (lh) during the 2025 kharif season compared with 112.48 lh a year ago.
Excellent crop conditions
In major cotton producing States such as Gujarat, cotton was cultivated in 20.82 lh, a decline of 12 per cent compared with 23.66 lh a year. Similarly in Maharashtra, the area declined to 38.44 lh (40.81 lh last year).
Meanwhile, the area under cotton cultivation increased in Southern States. In Telangana, it increased to 18.51 lh (18.11 lh), in Karnataka it is up at 8.08 lh (7.79 lh). In Andhra Pradesh, the area fell slightly to 3.77 lh (4.13 lh).
“Crop conditions are excellent this year. Though there was a little damage due to recent rains in North India, the weather has opened again, and they are expecting a good crop in North,” said Atul S Ganatra, President, Cotton Association of India. Based on the recent feedback from all 10 State trade associations, India’s overall cotton crop for 2025-26 is likely to be between 325 lakh bales (170 kg) to 340 lakh bales, against 312 lakh bales this season, Ganatra said.
In Karnataka, the crop is likely to increase by around 25 per cent to about 30 lakh bales (24 lakh bales in 2024-25), and in AP the crop size expectation is 17 lakh bales (12.5 lakh bales), he said. “Sowing has also increased in these States and the crop is good.” Ganatra said. In Telangana, the crop will likely be between 53 and 55 lakh bales (50 lakh bales), a 10 per cent increase.
South to the rescue
In South India, the 2025-26 crop is likely to be 105 lakh bales (88 lakh bales), which is expected to help offset any decline in other States, Ganatra said. “The crop will be better than last year due to better yields on timely sowing, which was over in almost all states by June 15. The crop condition in central India, mainly Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, is excellent,” he added.
According to Anand Popat, a cotton broker in Gujarat, the crop has been damaged by heavy rains in Punjab and Haryana, which will have a major impact. In Rajasthan, some damage has occurred, but it’s not very significant. In Central and South India, the crop conditions remain very good, so far. “If the heavy rains do not occur at the end of September, the quality and yield of cotton are expected to improve further,” Popat wrote in his latest weekly newsletter.
Heavy rains in Maharashtra last month and again over the past two days has left large parts of Vidarbha’s cotton fields waterlogged. The damage, which was earlier estimated at around 14 lakh hectares, is now expected to rise further as the State Agriculture Department continues its assessment. Alongside weather risks, cotton farmers also face recurring pest attacks and diseases, with pest dynamics shifting over time.
Telangana too saw extensive rains over the last few weeks, which has damaged the crop. This could impact the output as farmers expect lower yields. The crop is at the flowering-opening to boll elongation to the boll development stages.
Pest incidences in AP
“Prevailing weather conditions are congenial for the incidence of Spodoptera (insect) in the crop,” a government report said, advising farmers to use appropriate formulations to prevent any diseases at the crucial stage. In Andhra Pradesh, officials reported incidences of whiteflies, thrips, and jassids in districts like Anantapur, Guntur, and Prakasam. The total affected area is said to be about 11,600 ha.
Price pressures
Traders expects arrivals during Dasara festive season (which is ahead by about 20 days this year) to be around 30-35,000 bales per day, from the current arrivals of around 10,000.
The removal of import duty is expected to spur the imports during the October-December quarter with the trade pegging the imports upwards of 20 lakh bales during the quarter.
As a result, the raw kapas prices have also come down and are hovering below the MSP levels in the range of ₹5,500-7,000 per quintal depending on the moisture content and the quality, which has been impacted in certain regions of North due to the recent rains.
Heavy lifting by CCI
The State-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has geared up for a massive market intervention and has opened record 550 procurement centres to launch the MSP operations starting Oct 1 in North India. CCI has been liquidating its stocks through the bulk discount sale scheme in an effort to gear up for the market intervention, where public procurement of the fibre crop is going to a high. Last year, CCI had procured one crore bales of 170 kg each and is currently holding around 12 lakh bales of the 2024-25 crop.
Amidst record imports, muted demand, prices are expected to stay bearish and CCI may have do some heavy lifting through major market intervention.
Meanwhile, the USDA said in its “Cotton: World Markets and Trade” report that India’s production will likely be higher in the 2025-26 season, leading to a marginal drop in imports to 35.8 lakh bales (170 kg) from 37.14 lakh bales. Exports may increase to 16.64 lakh bales next season from 12.8 lakh bales this season.
The International Cotton Advisory Council (ICAC) said cotton production estimates have decreased significantly since August, dropping from 25.9 million tonnes to 25.5 million tonnes. It said there are shifts in trade patterns and demands from retailers, and brands are making cotton’s origin increasingly important.
read more :- Rain damages cotton, prices below MSP
