60% possibility of La Niña emerging between July and September; El Niño ending: WMO
The 2023/24 El Niño event, which prompted record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather across the globe, is likely to transition to La Niña conditions later this year, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
According to the WMO, the world has experienced its warmest April ever and the eleventh consecutive month of record-high temperatures. Sea surface temperatures have also been record-high for the last 13 months.
The WMO says the condition is being caused by a combination of naturally occurring El Niño — an abnormal warming of waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean — and excess energy trapped in the atmosphere and ocean by greenhouse gases generated by human activities.
Amid an existing but weakening El Niño, millions of people in South Asia, including India and Pakistan, endured scorching heat in April and May.
According to the latest forecast from WMO's long-term forecast centres, there is a 50 per cent chance of neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August. The probability of La Niña conditions increases to 60 per cent during July to September and 70 per cent during August to November. The chance of El Niño re-developing during this time is negligible.
While El Niño is associated with weak monsoon winds and dry conditions in India, La Niña — the opposite of El Niño — brings abundant rainfall during the monsoon.
Last month, the India Meteorological Department had forecast that India will receive above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, as favourable La Niña conditions are expected to develop by August-September. The monsoon is crucial to India's agricultural landscape, where 52 per cent of the net cultivated area is dependent on it. It is also important for power generation across the country, besides replenishing vital reservoirs for drinking water.El Niño is ending; 60% chance of La Niña developing during July-September: WMO
The 2023/24 El Niño event, which prompted record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather around the globe, is likely to transition to La Niña conditions later this year, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The world has experienced its warmest April ever and the eleventh consecutive month of record-high temperatures, according to the WMO. Sea surface temperatures have also been record-high for the past 13 months.
The WMO says the condition is being caused by a combination of naturally occurring El Niño — an abnormal warming of waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean — and excess energy trapped in the atmosphere and ocean by greenhouse gases generated by human activities.
Amid an existing but weakening El Niño, millions of people in South Asia, including India and Pakistan, endured scorching heat in April and May.
According to the latest forecast from WMO's long-range forecast centres, there is a 50 per cent chance of neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August. The probability of La Niña conditions increases to 60 per cent during July to September and 70 per cent during August to November. The chance of El Niño re-developing during this time is negligible.
While El Niño is associated with weak monsoon winds and dry conditions in India, La Niña — the opposite of El Niño — brings abundant rainfall during the monsoon.
Last month, the India Meteorological Department had forecast that India will receive above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, as favourable La Niña conditions are expected to develop by August-September. The monsoon is crucial to India's agricultural landscape, where 52 per cent of the net cultivated area is dependent on it. It is also important for power generation across the country, besides replenishing vital reservoirs for drinking water.
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