India is bracing for the lowest monsoon rains in eight years, two meteorological officials told Reuters on Monday, with an El Nino weather pattern causing rainfall to drop from August to September, the lowest in more than a century. Most are on track to dry up.
Shortage of summer rains could make essential commodities like sugar, pulses, rice and vegetables more expensive and push up overall food inflation
The monsoon, vital to India's $3 trillion economy, provides about 70% of the rain needed in the country to water crops and replenish reservoirs and aquifers. Nearly half of agricultural land in the world's most populous country lacks irrigation.
A senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) official said, "El Nino reduced rainfall in August and it will have a negative impact on September rainfall as well." He declined to be identified as he was not authorized to provide information to the media.
The official said India is poised to end the June-September monsoon season with a rainfall deficit of at least 8%, which would be the highest since 2015, when El Nino also reduced rainfall.
The Meteorological Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Indian Meteorological Officer is expected to announce its September forecast on August 31.
In its previous full-season forecast on May 26, the IMD had projected a rainfall deficit of 4% for the season, assuming limited impact from the El Nino weather pattern.
El Nino is a warming of Pacific waters that usually accompanies dry conditions in the Indian subcontinent.
Meteorological officials said earlier this month that India was headed for its driest August in more than a century.
The current monsoon has been uneven, with June rainfall being 9% below average, but July rainfall again being 13% above average.
Another IMD official said the southwest monsoon would start withdrawing from northwest India on time or a little before the normal date of September 17.
He said that the delayed withdrawal of monsoon has resulted in above average rainfall in the last four Septembers.
"In September, the northern and eastern states may receive less than normal rainfall. However, we may see an improvement in rainfall over the southern peninsula," said another official.
September rains are crucial for winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpea.
A Mumbai-based dealer of a global trading house said, "Due to scanty rains in August, the soil moisture level has gone down. We need good rains in September, otherwise sowing of winter crops will be affected."
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