USDA Projects Decline in India’s Cotton Acreage for MY 2025/26 Amid Crop Shifts
2025-05-20 12:34:07
USDA Forecasts Drop in India’s 2025/26 Cotton Acreage
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) forecasts India’s cotton acreage at 11.4 million hectares for the 2025/26 marketing year (MY), marking a 3% decline from the previous year. The reduction is attributed to farmers shifting toward more profitable crops, including pulses and oilseeds.
Despite the smaller planted area, India’s cotton production is projected to reach 25 million 480-lb. bales, assuming a normal monsoon. The average yield is expected to rise to 477 kilograms per hectare—up 3% from the official MY 2024/25 estimate of 461 kilograms per hectare—due to increased cultivation in irrigated regions with reliable water access.
However, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal maximum temperatures across much of the country—excluding southern regions—from March to May 2025. While cotton is relatively heat- and drought-tolerant, prolonged heatwaves and inadequate soil moisture could adversely affect yields.
On the demand side, mill consumption remains strong, with projections at 25.7 million 480-lb. bales. Robust international demand for yarn and textiles is expected to sustain this level, suggesting continued reliance on imports to meet domestic consumption.
On March 10, India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare released its second advance estimate for MY 2024/25, lowering production to 23 million 480-lb. bales (equivalent to 29.4 million 170-kg bales or 5 million metric tons), a 2% drop from the prior forecast. Nevertheless, FAS maintains its MY 2024/25 projection at 25 million bales, based on 11.8 million hectares.
FAS notes that rabi season sowing in southern India continues through December, and additional acreage data is anticipated at the close of the marketing year (October–September).
Regional Planting Trends
North India: * Punjab’s cotton area remains stable.
* Haryana sees a 5% decline as farmers pivot to paddy rice.
* Rajasthan is expected to reduce cotton area by 2%, shifting to guar, maize, and mung beans; however, improved pest control may support yields.
Central India: * Gujarat’s cotton area is projected to drop 3%, with growers favoring pulses, groundnut, cumin, and sesamum due to high input costs.
* Maharashtra's area remains unchanged as farmers diversify away from soybean.
* Madhya Pradesh expects a 5% decrease, driven by a move toward pulses and oilseeds.
South India: * A 7% reduction is forecast across Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, where government incentives for ethanol production are encouraging shifts to maize and rice.
