It's Likely to Rain More in July Than Usually
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country in July, except for the northeast and some eastern states like parts of western Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand.
According to the IMD's monthly outlook, rainfall across the country in July is expected to be above normal, exceeding 106% of the long-period average (LPA) of 280.4 mm. The IMD warned of a high likelihood of extreme rainfall in Odisha, Karnataka, Haryana, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand.
The monsoon is predicted to intensify in the second half of the season (August-September) as La Niña conditions develop, while El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific remain neutral. In India, El Niño is associated with poor monsoons, whereas La Niña typically brings abundant rainfall.
Additionally, the IMD forecast that minimum temperatures in July will likely be above normal in many parts of the country, except for some areas in the northwest, central India, and the southeastern peninsula. Maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal in parts of northwest India and southern peninsular India, excluding the west coast.
The IMD noted that northwest India experienced its warmest June since 1901, while the east and northeast regions had their fifth warmest June since 1901. This led to the highest number of heatwave days (181) in the last 15 years, surpassing the previous record of 177 days in 2010.
This summer, India experienced its second hottest period, with 536 heatwave days across various meteorological subdivisions—the highest in the last 14 years after 2010, which had 578 days.
In addition to the extreme heat in June, India also faced a deficit monsoon, receiving 11% less rainfall than normal, marking the seventh lowest rainfall in the past 24 years. The northwest region had the highest deficit, followed by the east, northeast, and central India. However, the southern peninsula received 14.2% above-normal rainfall. The subdued rainfall activity was attributed to a weaker Madden-Julian Oscillation and the lack of low-pressure systems forming over the Bay of Bengal.
The IMD observed a trend indicating a higher probability of above-normal rainfall in July if June experienced deficit rainfall.
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