India is Expected to Import More Cotton in the 2024–2025 Crop Year
India is expected to see a rise in cotton imports during the 2024-25 crop year (October 2024-September 2025) due to lower carry-forward stocks and a potential drop in domestic output, driven by reduced acreage. Some traders have already contracted imports for the November-March period, capitalizing on recent low global prices, according to industry insiders.
Atul Ganatra, President of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), said, “Imports could reach 35 lakh bales this year.” CAI data shows that India imported 16.40 lakh bales (170 kg each) by the end of August 2023 for the 2023-24 season. The expected increase in imports is linked to a 12-13 lakh hectare decrease in cotton planting. Ganatra also noted that there’s minimal carry-forward stock from 2023-24, with only 30 lakh bales of kapas (unprocessed cotton) from 2022-23 still with farmers. The USDA has forecast India’s 2024-25 cotton output at 24 million bales (480 pounds each), a 7% decline from the previous year's 25.80 million bales, mainly due to lower harvested areas.
Landed Costs of Cotton Contracts
As of August, the CAI estimates closing stocks at 23.32 lakh bales by September 30, 2024, compared to 28.90 lakh bales the previous year. Ganatra also confirmed that 7-10 lakh bales have already been contracted for the November-March period. The landed cost of Brazilian cotton (28 mm) for December delivery, including 11% customs duty, is approximately ₹64,880 per bale. Australian cotton (29 mm) costs ₹69,120 per bale, while West African cotton (28.7 mm), which has a 5.5% duty, is priced at ₹63,480 for April-May 2025 delivery.
As of October 4, CAI’s spot rates for 28 mm cotton were ₹56,700 per candy (356 kg), down by ₹400, while 29 mm cotton was priced at ₹58,000. On October 3, 37,500 bales were reported across the country, up from 14,800 bales the day before. Total arrivals since October 1 have reached 80,300 bales.
Uncertainty Around Crop Size
Ganatra cautioned that it is too early to make definitive predictions about the 2024-25 crop size, as recent rains have caused significant damage and delayed the crop by about a month in Maharashtra and Gujarat.
Ramanuj Das Boob, Vice President of the All India Cotton Brokers Association, mentioned that around 10 lakh bales had been contracted when ICE futures were around 66-67 cents per pound. Currently, ICE futures are hovering at 72-73 cents per pound. Boob noted that further imports will depend on how Indian cotton prices respond as arrivals increase. Early arrivals have already softened the market.
In Karnataka’s Raichur region, daily cotton arrivals range from 3,000 to 5,000 bales, with prices between ₹7,000 and ₹7,700 per quintal. In Telangana’s Adoni, prices range from ₹7,000 to ₹7,400 per quintal, with a high moisture content of around 10%, slowing down purchasing.
The minimum support price (MSP) for medium staple cotton is ₹7,121 per quintal, while long staple cotton is priced at ₹7,521. Boob added that despite the reduced acreage, the crop outlook remains positive, though arrivals in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh could be delayed. He expects improvements in arrivals after October 15.
Read More :- Maharashtra: 30,000 quintals of cotton arriving in the market every day
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