Prabhu Dhamodharan, convener of the Indian Textile Entrepreneurs Federation (ITF), said alternative fibres have made some progress but cotton still remains the preferred choice among premium consumers. "This segment of consumers exhibits high spending power, leading to a sustained demand for cotton-based fashion products," he said.
From India's perspective, for the first time this year, its cotton-based apparel exports accounted for 12 per cent of the US market. "With India's established strength in cotton apparels, this momentum is likely to continue," Dhamodharan said.
Pointing to various initiatives launched by the EU and the UK to promote eco-friendly products, BMI said the demand for cotton is likely to become volatile due to the growing trend of synthetic fibres and the progress in affordable, high-quality and bio-based alternatives.
Recycled cotton
"As consumer preferences shift towards more sustainable alternatives, we expect a gradual decline in demand for the cotton crop, impacting prices and hence reducing production in the long term," the research agency said.
"The low cost of alternatives is impacting cotton. While the lowest price of cotton yarn is ₹220 per kg, blended yarn is priced at around ₹150," Das Bub said.
"The prices of recycled cotton are one-fourth of the prices of pure cotton products. Even large retailers are considering reducing costs by opting for blended cotton instead of pure cotton," Popat said.
BMI said cotton production has faced several challenges in recent years, particularly the development of resistance to Bt cotton by pink bollworm in India, due to incompatibility with local agronomic and climatic conditions. "This underlines the need for cotton producers to continue innovating and adapting to emerging challenges," it said.
Social campaigns
Social campaigns against alleged forced labour in China's Xinjiang cotton industry have led to global boycotts by major fashion brands and consumers. "Domestic demand has also weakened, with Chinese garment manufacturers increasingly turning to imported cotton to avoid the adverse effects of import bans and boycotts," the research agency said.
Popat said various agencies are now trying to promote cotton. "It all started when cotton prices touched ₹1 lakh per candy (356 kg). Manufacturers tried to reduce costs and alternatives came up," he said.
"Nothing can beat the feel of pure cotton. This is a cyclical trend. It can change in a few years," Das Boob said.
Dhamodaran said inventory levels in the global fashion sector have normalised, with brands and retailers increasingly leveraging AI and digital tools for demand-based, dynamic planning.
Almost five-year low
"Production is now closely aligned with consumption patterns, especially in developed markets, and EU import and consumption trends remain very stable. We expect even better momentum in the EU going forward," he said.
BMI said India and China have initiated measures to address current problems in the cotton sector. These are likely to bear fruits over time.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, global cotton production is estimated to be 25.78 million tonnes (MT) in 2025-26, compared to 26.10 million tonnes in 2024-25. Domestic consumption in producing countries is expected to rise to 25.72 million tonnes (25.40 million tonnes in 2024-25), while exports are likely to rise to 9.73 million tonnes (9.36 million tonnes). This will leave ending stocks at 16.83 million tonnes (16.71 million tonnes), a clear sign of a slowdown.
Cotton futures on the New York-based Intercontinental Exchange are trading near a five-year low of 66 cents per pound. In India, benchmark Shankar-6 cotton is trading at ₹57,500 per candy in Rajkot, Gujarat.
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