Threat to pulses, soybean and cotton crops due to weak monsoon
By yash chouhan 2026-04-15 11:49:37
Weak Monsoon: Pulses, Soybean, Cotton Affected
A weak monsoon is expected to have its most significant impact this year on crops such as pulses, soybean, and cotton, while rice appears relatively secure thanks to superior irrigation infrastructure.
According to an analysis by Moneycontrol, the forecast for a below-normal monsoon in 2026 poses a heightened threat to crops cultivated primarily in rain-dependent regions. On April 13, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projected monsoon rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA)—marking the weakest initial forecast in approximately 26 years. This could adversely affect sowing, production, and rural demand, while also raising the risk of increased pressure on food inflation.
Although current reservoir water levels remain satisfactory—with storage recorded at 27% above normal as of April 2—deficient rainfall in the future could impact water replenishment and the availability of water for Rabi crops. While risks will persist even in irrigated states, the greatest challenge lies in those regions that are entirely dependent on the monsoon.
Among the various crops, soybean appears to be at the highest risk. Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh collectively account for 83.6% of the country's total production; however—particularly in Maharashtra—irrigation coverage falls significantly below the national average, thereby exacerbating the risk.
The situation for cotton is quite similar. Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh together contribute approximately 66% of the total output. Low irrigation coverage in Maharashtra renders the crop more vulnerable, whereas Gujarat's superior irrigation infrastructure offers some measure of relief.
A weak monsoon could also have repercussions for the broader economy. According to Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA Ltd, the combined impact of a weak monsoon and geopolitical tensions in West Asia could fuel inflation and dampen economic growth. She projects that average CPI inflation in FY27 could hover above the 4.5% mark. Meanwhile, CareEdge's Chief Economist, Rajani Sinha, believes that the inflation rate could hover around 4.6%. Rising oil prices and climatic factors such as El Niño could exert additional pressure on this figure.
Overall, the potentially weak monsoon of 2026 is emerging as a significant risk for both rain-fed agriculture and inflation.
