International cotton prices showed a volatile trend in 2023. The supply side was supported by speculation about production cuts in the first half of the year, but after the market absorbed this bullish factor, support became limited. On the consumption side, the weak trend continued as the stocking process of textile and apparel products in various countries has not yet ended, and expectations for the peak season were reduced. There were few new orders and the global consumption recovery process was slow. Global cotton prices were under downward pressure as the new crop for the 2023/24 season gradually hit the market. Presently the arrival of cotton is at its peak, more than 2 lakh bales are arriving every day. The price of cotton and cottonseed is at its lowest level of Rs 2200, the main reason for which is said to be the reduction in oil content by pink bollworm due to which only 50 percent oil is coming out of the cottonseed.
January :
2022/23 global cotton production forecast shifted from production growth to production decline, with the Cotton Association of India broadly adjusting its Indian cotton production forecast downwards in its January report.
February :
Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves decreased, huge fall in Pakistani rupee
Export sales of American cotton increased significantly.
march
The USDA projected higher cotton inventories in the 2022/23 season in its March report.
Banking system issues caused cotton prices to decline.
Brazilian cotton prices declined due to increasing export pressure.
april
US cotton export sales entered the oversold phase and cuts increased.
May
Indian cotton arrivals increased against the weather.
US cotton abandonment was expected to decline by half from the previous year.
june
Progress on new cotton planting in America was slow
july
Strong expectations for good cotton production in Brazil and Australia.
CONAB estimates that Brazilian cotton inventory accumulation pressure has increased.
China announced allocating an additional 750kt sliding-scale duty quota.
august
Soil moisture in Texas, USA deteriorated and the good-to-excellent ratio of American cotton was reduced.
USDA cuts US cotton production by a massive 550kt.
September
The rainfall gap in India widened and expectations regarding production shifted from production growth to production cuts.
Brazilian agricultural products rushed to market, causing shortages in shipments and making cotton difficult to ship.
Supply increased markedly as Pakistani cotton entered the market earlier.
october
US cotton export sales increased due to purchases from China
november
Indian cotton prices reached MSP and CCI started purchasing seed cotton.
Delayed rains forced growers in Brazil to plant cotton instead of soybeans.
December
USDA forecasts global cotton consumption to decline.
Source: CCF
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