India’s Cotton Imports Set to Hit Record High Amid Duty Exemption, Weak Output
India’s cotton imports are projected to surge nearly 10% in the 2025/26 season to a record high, fueled by the government’s decision to allow duty-free imports and a sharp decline in domestic production to a 17-year low, industry officials told Reuters.
Higher purchases by the world’s second-largest cotton producer are expected to lend support to global cotton prices, which are currently hovering near six-month lows.
According to Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), India’s cotton imports could rise to 4.5 million bales in the 2025/26 marketing year that began on October 1, with around 3 million bales expected to arrive in the December quarter alone.
Domestic cotton production is forecast to fall 2.4% from last year to 30.5 million bales, the lowest output since 2008/09, CAI estimates show. Some traders predict an even sharper drop, possibly to 28 million bales.
The textile industry—one of India’s largest employers, providing jobs to over 45 million people—is also facing weakening demand. The CAI expects cotton consumption to fall 4.5% to 30 million bales in 2025/26 amid sluggish export orders.
“Demand from the U.S. has dropped after the imposition of steep tariffs, forcing many textile units in southern India to scale back operations,” Ganatra said.
The United States, which accounts for nearly 29% of India’s $38 billion in annual textile exports, doubled tariffs on Indian imports to as high as 50%, effective August.
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