Global cotton production, stocks and consumption growth for 2025-26: WASDE
By yash chouhan 2025-07-16 12:13:53
Cotton production, stock and consumption increased in 2025-26: WASDE
The July 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates global cotton production for the 2025-26 marketing season at 118.42 million bales (each weighing 480 pounds or 208.65 kilograms). This is up from 116.99 million bales estimated in the June report.
The 1.43 million bale increase is due to a 1 million bale increase in China's crop, a 600,000 bale increase in the US crop and a 100,000 bale increase in Mexico's crop, partly offset by a reduction in Pakistan and Egypt.
However, estimates for cotton imports, exports and opening stocks have been lowered.
Global consumption increased by 365,000 bales to 118.12 million bales, with increases in Pakistan and Mexico partially offset by decreases in Italy and Germany. Global exports decreased by 100,000 bales to 44.69 million bales. Opening stocks for 2025-26 decreased by 510,000 bales to 76.78 million bales, reflecting lower stock levels in the United States and China and minor adjustments elsewhere.
Ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 77.32 million bales, 520,000 bales higher than the previous estimate, as higher production offsets increased consumption and a decrease in opening stocks.
The July 2025 WASDE report for 2025-26 for the United States also shows higher production and ending stocks, lower opening stocks, and unchanged consumption and import estimates compared to the June report.
According to NASS’s June acreage report, planted area increased to 10.12 million acres. Harvested area increased 6 percent to 8.66 million acres, reflecting both more plantings and less abandonment in the Southwest, partially offset by more abandonment in the Southeast. The national average yield for 2025-26 decreased 1 percent to 809 pounds per harvested acre, as more acres of low-yielding dryland acreage are harvested, driven by a decrease in abandonment in the Southwest.
Since the increase in harvested area is greater than the decrease in yield, the production forecast is up 600,000 bales compared to the June estimate to 14.60 million bales – up from 14.41 million bales last year.
Beginning stocks for 2025-26 have been reduced by 300,000 bales following a corresponding proportionate increase in projected exports for 2024-25. These revisions result in projected ending stocks for 2025-26 of 4.60 million bales, up 300,000 bales from the previous month, i.e., a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4 percent. The projected season-average upland price for 2025-26 remains unchanged at 62 cents per pound.
