Global Cotton Oversupply to Persist in 2025/2026 - ICAC
Global cotton fiber production should reach 26 million tonnes in 2025/2026, exceeding consumption by about 800,000 tonnes.
China, India, and Brazil should continue to dominate global supply, while Asia should lead demand.
Cotton prices should remain under pressure after the Cotlook A Index fell to its lowest average level since 2020/2021.
The global cotton market has not exited its phase of oversupply. In a statement published on February 2, the International Cotton Advisory Committee said global cotton fiber production should reach 26 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 season.
This volume represents a 1% increase from the previous season.
Global cotton consumption should reach 25.2 million tonnes in 2025/2026. This level represents a 0.4% increase compared with the 2024/2025 season.
According to the ICAC, China, India, and Brazil should continue to dominate global supply. “Consumption is also driven by China, ahead of India and Pakistan, which highlights the persistent predominance of Asia on both the supply and demand sides of the global market,” the organization said.
Global cotton imports and exports could reach 9.7 million tonnes in 2025/2026. This volume represents a 5% increase from the previous season.
The ICAC expects Brazil to retain its position as the world’s largest cotton exporter, ahead of the United States and Australia. The organization expects Bangladesh to rank as the world’s largest cotton importer, followed by Vietnam and China.
According to the ICAC, this trend reflects “the ongoing evolution of global textile manufacturing chains and sourcing strategies.”
Bangladesh benefits from competitive production costs and a network of nearly 4,500 factories. American and European Union retailers increasingly favor the country as a sourcing hub.
Rapid expansion of Bangladesh’s spinning industry relies on large-scale cotton imports to support production growth.
The ICAC said the Cotlook A Index declined for a third consecutive season. The index averaged 79.6 cents per pound in the 2024/2025 season.
This level marked a 13.4% decline from the previous season. The index reached its lowest average level since the 2020/2021 season.
Looking ahead to 2026, cotton prices will depend on several structural factors.
“By 2026, cotton prices will depend not only on global economic growth and public policy stability, but also on producers’ ability to control rising input costs and cope with climate uncertainty, in a context where the sector adapts to rapidly changing market conditions,” the ICAC said in December in its review of the 2024/2025 season, which it described as an “adjustment season.”
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