Global cotton output, use & trade raised in 2025-26; stocks cut: WASDE
The world cotton outlook for 2025–26 has been revised to reflect expectations for higher production, consumption, and trade, along with lower beginning and ending stocks, according to the September 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Global cotton production is projected to exceed the previous estimate by over 1 million bales, as increases for China, India, and Australia more than offset declines in Turkiye, Mexico, and several West African nations. Total global production is now forecast at 117.68 million bales of 480 pounds (217.7 kg) each.
The report indicates that world consumption has been raised by nearly 850,000 bales, driven mainly by increases in China and Vietnam, partially offset by a reduction in Turkiye and minor changes in several other countries. Global consumption is now pegged at 118.83 million bales, up from 117.99 million bales in the previous report.
World trade is projected to rise by just over 100,000 bales, with increases for India and Australia partly offset by declines in several West African nations. Global exports are now expected at 43.70 million bales, compared to 43.59 million bales earlier.
Beginning stocks for 2025–26 have been reduced by nearly 1 million bales to 74.06 million bales, down from 75.05 million last month, largely reflecting higher 2024–25 consumption in China. Consequently, ending stocks for 2025–26 have been lowered by almost 800,000 bales to 73.14 million bales, the lowest level in four years, compared to 73.91 million bales previously.
For the US, the September outlook shows slightly higher production compared to last month, with no changes to exports, consumption, imports, or ending stocks. The US crop is projected 10,000 bales higher at 13.2 million bales, supported by unchanged to slightly higher planted and harvested areas across all regions. However, the national average yield has been lowered by 1 pound to 861 pounds per harvested acre.
With no revisions to consumption, exports, or ending stocks, the stocks-to-use ratio remains unchanged at just over 26 per cent. The projected season-average upland cotton price for 2025–26 is steady at 64 cents per pound.
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