Cotton prices fall as global cotton production forecast to rise by over 1.2 million bales
By DHEERAJ GUPTA 2024-12-30 12:38:17
As global cotton production is expected to increase by more than 1.2 million bales, cotton prices decline.
Cotton futures closed -0.53% lower at ₹54,140 on the back of higher global production estimates and tight domestic supplies. Global cotton production for the 2024-25 cotton year is forecast to rise by over 1.2 million bales to reach 117.4 million bales, mainly due to higher production in India and Argentina. In India, key northern states—Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan—have seen a sharp decline of 43% in kapas (unginned cotton) arrivals till November 30 compared to last year. This decline has led to supply chain disruptions, with farmers holding back produce in anticipation of better prices, while ginners and spinners are facing raw material shortages, especially in Punjab.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has maintained its cotton consumption forecast for the 2024-25 season at 313 lakh bales at 170 kg per bale, while cotton pressing is estimated at 302.25 lakh bales. Cotton imports are also expected to rise significantly to 25 lakh bales in the current crop year, up from 15.20 lakh bales in the previous year. Moreover, U.S. cotton production has been revised upwards to about 14.3 million bales, while global output has risen by 1.2 million bales to 117.4 million, mainly due to a 1-million-bale increase in India's crop.
Technically, fresh selling is underway in the market, with open interest rising 0.27% to 368. Prices have fallen by ₹290, support is at ₹53,890 and if broken, a possible test of ₹53,630 is possible. Resistance is seen at ₹54,520, and in case of a bullish trend, the possible upside target is ₹54,890.
