2026 Cotton Outlook: Dwindling stocks support prices
By yash chouhan 2026-02-18 11:59:04
2026 Cotton Outlook: Economic pressure remains but declining stocks may support prices
MEMPHIS, Tennessee – Economists at the National Cotton Council point to some key reasons why the U.S. Will decide the cotton industry's economic outlook for 2026.
Overall, by 2025 U.S. The cotton industry had another difficult year due to low prices, high production costs and weak demand. As the 2026 season approaches, farmers are facing difficult decisions about planting as current prices remain below the cost of production. Although worldwide cotton demand is expected to recover in 2026, potential changes in trade policy have created considerable uncertainty in the global cotton market.
The outlook for the worldwide cotton market will, to some extent, be determined by continued growth in economic activity. Steady to slow economic growth is expected for the next two years.
In her analysis of the results of the NCC's annual Planting Intentions Survey, Dr. Jody Campich, NCC's vice president of economics and policy analysis, said the NCC estimates that the U.S. will grow more than 100,000 acres of land in 2026. Cotton area will be 9.0 million acres in 2025, which is 3.2 percent less than 2025. Survey results Reflecting the economic condition of cotton growers, who are now facing their fourth year of poor market returns.
Compared to average futures prices during the first quarter of 2025, all commodity prices were lower during the 2026 survey period, but cotton declined the most. Because of this, the price ratio of cotton compared to corn and soybean was lower than in 2025.
Harvested area in the Cotton Belt is projected to reach 7.1 million acres by 2026, including the U.S. The crop abandonment rate is 21.3 percent. Using state level average yields, the cotton crop was 12.7 million bales, including 12.3 million upland bales and 393,000 ELS bales.
U.S. Mills are expected to use 1.55 million bales in 2026, compared to 1.60 million bales in 2025. U.S. There is pressure on textile manufacturing.
For the 2026 marketing year, worldwide consumption is projected to increase 1.0 percent to 120.0 million bales. U.S. production by 2025 due to projected increases in world consumption and lower world production. Export estimates are high. With higher export projections, the U.S. The end stock is estimated to decline to 3.5 million bales in 2026.
World production is projected to decline to 114.1 million bales in 2026 due to reduced harvested acreage and lower yields, Campich said. With consumption increasing in the main importing countries, world trade is projected to grow to 44.6 million bales in 2026. For the 2026 marketing year, ending stocks will decline to 69.8 million bales due to lower production coupled with higher world consumption and trade. If that happens, it would be the lowest level of world end stocks outside China since 2016.
If world consumption can overcome headwinds from a sluggish global economy and cheap man-made fibre, prices could provide some support from dwindling stocks on balance sheets to 2026.
U.S. And current economic projections for the global economy should be viewed with caution given rising geopolitical tensions and the potential impact of changes in trade policy. U.S. The cotton industry is an export-oriented industry, both for raw fiber as well as cotton yarn and fabric, and tariff policies can significantly alter the trade environment.
