CAI cuts 2025-26 cotton import forecast to 47 lakh bales amid higher global prices and weaker rupee
Firm global cotton prices, a weakening rupee and rising freight costs linked to the West Asia conflict have led the Cotton Association of India (CAI) to trim its cotton import projections for the 2025-26 season (ending September) by about 3 lakh bales to 47 lakh bales.
The revised estimate is lower than CAI’s earlier projection of 50 lakh bales.
According to CAI President Vinay N. Kotak, the upward movement in international cotton prices and the depreciation of the rupee have made imports more expensive. At the same time, domestic cotton prices have stabilised, making Indian cotton relatively cheaper or on par with the replacement cost of imported fibre. Rising freight rates and longer transit times due to the ongoing West Asia war have also discouraged imports.
Despite the downward revision, imports for 2025-26 are still expected to be higher than last year’s 41 lakh bales. By the end of February, around 36 lakh bales had already arrived in the country, as mills and traders rushed shipments to take advantage of the duty-free import window that remained in place until the end of December.
Looking ahead, CAI believes India’s cotton exports could gain momentum. Kotak noted that a further depreciation of the rupee and a rise in international cotton prices—possibly linked to higher crude oil prices—could improve the competitiveness of Indian cotton in global markets. India’s geographical proximity also provides an advantage for supplying nearby markets such as Bangladesh and China, which may turn to India to meet their immediate requirements.
For now, CAI has retained its cotton export estimate for the 2025-26 season at 15 lakh bales. By the end of February, about 7 lakh bales had been shipped overseas.
On the production side, CAI has slightly raised its crop estimate by 3.5 lakh bales to 320.5 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), citing better-than-expected output in states such as Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Yields have improved particularly in Maharashtra’s Vidarbha region, as well as in Karnataka and Telangana.
The association has also revised its consumption estimate upward by 10 lakh bales to 315 lakh bales for the 2025-26 season. Cotton consumption until February 2026 is estimated at 131.25 lakh bales.
As a result of these adjustments, CAI now projects closing stocks at the end of the 2025-26 season at 98.09 lakh bales—around 9.5 lakh bales lower than its earlier estimate.
read more :- Cotton Status Report (as on 28/02/2026)
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