Brazil cotton output seen down nearly 10% in 2025/26 season, forecast producers
Brazil’s cotton output is expected to fall by nearly 10% in the 2025/26 season, as planted area and yields decline, according to the first crop report released by the Brazilian Cotton Producers Association (Abrapa).
Planted area is forecast to shrink 5.5% from the previous season to 2.052 million hectares. Average yields are seen down 4.7% at 1,866 kg of lint per hectare. As a result, lint production is projected at 3.829 million tonnes, a drop of 9.9% year on year.
Abrapa executive director Marcio Portocarrero told Valor that growers’ decision to cut area is strategic. He said Brazil’s cotton sector is highly professional and is responding cautiously to a global environment marked by excess lint supply and rising competition from synthetic fibres as oil prices fall.
High interest rates and tighter access to credit have also significantly increased production risks, he added.
Independent cotton market consultant Pery Pedro said the sharpest decline in planted area is likely among farmers who do not traditionally invest heavily in cotton. Among large-scale producers, he estimates the reduction will not exceed 1%.
According to Pedro, many medium-sized farmers with around 3,000 hectares of soybeans occasionally allocate part of their land to second-crop cotton but lack the infrastructure of large groups. These producers are more likely to cut cotton area in favour of crop rotation aimed at soil health, a decision driven more by agronomic than economic factors.
He added that the area reduction is not directly linked to prices. Cotton futures in New York, the benchmark for the Brazilian market, ended 2025 down 8%. “The price environment is weak, but not dramatic. Current prices still provide sufficient returns for producers to maintain their cotton infrastructure,” he said.
Planting of the new crop has begun across the country and typically intensifies in January in states where cotton is grown as a second crop. As of Jan. 8, about 18% of the estimated area had been planted, Abrapa said.
Total cotton supply for the season is estimated at 4.76 million tonnes, up 17.6% from the previous crop. Despite the lower production forecast, Abrapa expects beginning stocks to jump 65.7% to 835,000 tonnes.
Exports are projected at 3.2 million tonnes, an increase of 13% from the prior season.
The chart below shows the year-on-year performance of Brazilian cotton exports. The data featured below was collected and processed by Datamar’s Business Intelligence team.
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