Cotton yesterday closed up 0.35% at 63300, tracking a rise in ICE (NYSE:ICE) Cotton prices jumped after a weekly federal report showed a jump in exports of the natural fiber. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report showed net sales of 231,300 running bales (RB) for 2022/2023, up 19% from last week and 65% from the previous 4-week average. The USDA said exports of 24,800 Rb were up 20% from the previous week, mainly to China at 9,600 Rb and Vietnam at 5,200 Rb.
India's cotton production is set to rise to 33.72 million bales (170 kg each) in the 2022-23 crop year (July-June), as against 31.12 million bales a year ago, according to agriculture ministry data. However, traders and some agencies are projecting lower production. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast that India's cotton exports will decline by 5,00,000 bales to 1.8 million (US bales 227.72 kg or 23.05 lakh Indian bales 170 kg) this month, roughly equal to its import forecast . Industry experts have estimated exports to remain within 2 million bales during 2022-23 (October-September). The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) lowered its global price outlook for cotton in December 2022 compared to its projections. In its outlook for May, the ICAC projected a season average price forecast range of between 96.1 cents and 111.3 cents, with a midpoint of 102.77 cents. per kg. This is lower than the midpoint of 115 cents projected in December 2022.
Technically the market is under short covering as open interest in the market remained unchanged from 0% to close at 316 while the prices are up by Rs 220 now cotton is taking support at 63160 and below it 63020 levels , and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63420, on the upside the price may test 63540.
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