Indian cotton exports for 2022-23 are forecast to decline by 500,000 bales to 1.8 million in April 2023, roughly equal to its import forecast. Exports have historically exceeded imports by a significant margin, and the last time imports exceeded exports was about 20 years ago. Reduced domestic supply, increased demand for overseas long and extra-long staple grades and the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) have supported this recent dynamic.
2022-23 opening stocks and production totals are estimated to be at a 14-year low of 33.1 million bales, putting considerable pressure on exports. Also, according to the United States Department of Agriculture report, Indian spot prices relative to global prices have increased at the beginning of the year due to a tight supply of cotton, slowing shipments to major markets including China.
India has recently become the largest consumer of long and extra long staple cotton. As tall and extra tall cotton is not grown adequately in the country. So the Egyptian Giza 94 and the US Pima are imported. Thus India will remain a stable source of import demand for this variety of cotton.
Despite being forecast to be the third largest exporter in 2022-23 with 1.8 million bales, exports are projected to be significantly lower than the 6.2 million bales exported in 2021-22. Global ending stocks are estimated to range from 900,000 bales to close to 92.0 million, with an upward projection mostly for China, India and Brazil, the report said.
The US balance sheet is comprised of higher exports and lower end stocks than last month. Estimated US season-average farm prices are forecast to be lower by 1 percent to 82 cents per pound. Global cotton prices were mostly down since last month's WASDE, with prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at around 83 cents a pound.
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