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Cotton Output Falls Sharply, Rural Employment Pressure Mounts In India.

India’s Cotton Output Drops, Rural Jobs at RiskIndia’s cotton production is expected to contract by 1.7 per cent in the cotton year 2026 (October 2025–September 2026), taking output to 29.2 million bales, the lowest level in a decade, according to a report by rating agency  Icra. The reduction is driven by declining acreage, water shortages, uneven monsoons, and farmers shifting to more profitable crops.The report notes that while yields per hectare are rising modestly, up 1.8 per cent year-on-year, this gain is insufficient to offset shrinking cultivation areas, which have declined nearly 20 per cent from peak levels in 2021. The contraction in output is likely to affect rural employment, as cotton farming continues to provide significant seasonal work under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) and local wage opportunities.Domestic cotton consumption is expected to remain flat in CYi2026, despite subdued output. Analysts cited in the  Icra report highlighted that U.S. tariffs on Indian apparel exports are likely to dampen downstream demand, further reducing incentives for higher cotton production.In response to the domestic shortfall, India has increased its dependence on imports, which rose 85 per cent year-on-year in the first five months of FY2026 to 1.5 million bales of 170 kg each. The United States remains the largest supplier, accounting for 22 per cent of imports. Icra emphasised that while import duty exemptions provided between 19 August and 31 December 2025, helped maintain supply, they also contributed to soft cotton prices domestically.Cotton yarn prices mirrored the softness in raw cotton markets. Domestic cotton fibre prices fell 3 per cent month-on-month in November 2025, while average cotton yarn prices dropped 4 per cent, reducing contribution margins from Rs. 103 per kg in the first half of FY2026 to Rs 96 per kg by November 2025. Icra expects margins to stabilise at Rs 98–100 per kg in FY2026, due to moderation in realisations in the second half.The report surveyed 13 cotton spinning companies, representing 25–30 per cent of the industry’s revenue. These companies are projected to see revenue decline by 4–6 per cent in FY2026, with margin contractions of 50–100 basis points, largely due to weaker second-half performance.The slowdown in cotton production and yarn demand has broader implications for rural India, where cotton cultivation is closely tied to local livelihoods. Lower output may reduce casual and seasonal employment, pressuring rural wages and increasing reliance on government employment schemes such as MGNREGS. The report signals a need for policy attention to sustain both farmer incomes and rural employment amid shifting crop patterns and global trade uncertainties.READ MORE :-“State-wise CCI cotton sales in 2024-25”

Industry appeals against local cotton tax.

Industry bodies urge removal of 4% source tax on local cotton at BTMA meeting.Bangladesh’s textile value chain stakeholders have renewed calls to strengthen domestic cotton production and remove fiscal barriers, as industry bodies and government officials met at the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) headquarters in Gulshan on January 1, 2026.The joint meeting, organised by BTMA, brought together senior officials from the Bangladesh Cotton Development Board (CDB) and members of the Bangladesh Cotton Ginners Association (BCGA). The session was chaired by Mohammad Khorshed Alam, Director, BTMA.Speaking at the meeting, CDB officials highlighted the strategic importance of expanding local cotton cultivation to reduce import dependency and improve supply-chain resilience. The discussion placed strong emphasis on scaling domestic cotton production through better land utilisation, farmer engagement, and closer coordination between growers, ginners, and spinners.Among the key recommendations was the withdrawal of the government-imposed 4% source tax on domestic cotton sales, which participants said discourages trade of locally produced cotton. Ginners also urged Bangladeshi spinning mills to prioritise the procurement of cotton produced by local ginning mills to support domestic value addition.Mohammad Rezaual Amin, Executive Director, Bangladesh Cotton Development Board, along with Dr. Md. Gazi Golam Mortuza, Soil Fertility and Water Management Specialist, Bangladesh Cotton Development Board, and Dr. Khalequzzaman, Senior Scientific Officer, Bangladesh Cotton Development Board, shared technical perspectives on productivity improvement and sustainable cultivation practices. Project-level updates were presented by Dr. A.K.M. Harun-or-Rashid, Project Director, Bangladesh Cotton Development Board.The meeting also discussed awareness-building initiatives among farmers. Ginners requested BTMA’s support in distributing 5,000 BTMA-branded T-shirts at a planned farmer seminar aimed at encouraging cotton cultivation.Mohammad Khorshed Alam, Director, BTMA, stressed the importance of ensuring that cultivable agricultural land remains productive, urging the plantation of cotton trees where land remains idle. He also encouraged ginning mill owners to promote integrated farming, combining cotton with vegetables on fallow or underutilised land to enhance farmer income.Ziaul Hasan Chowdhury, Deputy Secretary General, BTMA, was also present at the meeting, alongside representatives from ginning mills across Kushtia, Jashore, and other cotton-producing regions.read more:- "The first major survey of the textile sector will be conducted in 2027."

"The first major survey of the textile sector will be conducted in 2027."

Government plans first comprehensive textile sector survey in 2027The government is planning to launch a comprehensive survey of the textile sector in 2027, aiming to build a detailed picture of the financial health, employment structure and market integration of one of India’s most labour-intensive industries, sources told.Unlike earlier exercises that focused largely on production or wages, the proposed survey is expected to go deeper into the financial ecosystem surrounding textile units. Officials said it will examine how firms access finance, whether they are able to obtain formal loans, how much they repay, and the extent to which they are integrated into the formal credit system. Export participation will also be tracked, allowing policymakers to assess how deeply textile enterprises are plugged into global value chains.At present, official data on the sector is fragmented. The labour ministry tracks wages in textiles, but the last such survey was conducted in 2017. There is little systematic information on credit access, financial stress or export orientation across the vast and diverse textile landscape.“Whether they get loans or not, how much they repay, their financial inclusion status, and whether they export—these are some of the things we want to understand. Textile is a labour-intensive secread more:-  Government extends deadline for applying to Textile PLI scheme till March 31

ICRA's warning: Cotton production to take a hit.

Acreage Shifts, Uneven Rainfall To Hurt Cotton Output, Says ICRA.A report by Icra noted that despite leading the world in acreage, the cotton sown area in India has been declining steadily as current levels are 20 per cent lower than the peak acreage levels of 2021. Despite a reduction in acreage, the cotton yield continues to rise, improving by 1.8 per cent YoY in CYi2026.(SIS)However, cotton output is likely to dip by 1.7 per cent YoY to 29.2 million bales in CYi2026, according to the first advance estimates released by Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (DA&FW), taking the output to its lowest levels in the last 10 years. Icra added that domestic consumption, on the other hand, is expected to remain flat.“While domestic demand is stable, the effects of tariffs levied by the United States (US) on Indian apparel exports, on the downstream sectors is likely to affect overall consumption. Amidst lower cotton output, the dependence on cotton imports has been rising, up 85 per cent on a YoY basis to 1.5 million bales of 170 kilogram in 5MFY26. Imports now meet over 10 per cent of demand,” the report highlighted.(SIS)Icra pointed out that due to weak demand and import duty waiver, cotton prices have been trading marginally below the minimum support price (MSP) since Nov 2024. MSP on cotton increased by 8 per cent for the cotton crop year 2026. Following a flat trend in H1FY26, domestic cotton fibre prices fell by 3 per cent month-on-month (MoM) in November 2025. Against this, average cotton yarn prices fell by 4 per cent, thus moderating the contribution levels from Rs 103 per kg in H1FY26 to Rs 96 per kg in November 2025.(SIS)Icra’s sample set of 13 companies, which accounts for 25 to 30 per cent of the industry's revenue, are expected to report a 4 to 6 per cent decline in revenues on a YoY basis in the current fiscal year.read more:-   Cotton sales pick up pace, CCI at 96%.

Cotton sales pick up pace, CCI at 96%.

CCI Cotton Sales Hit 96.30%, Weekly Volume at 2.02 Lakh BalesThe Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) kept its prices unchanged this week, CCI has now sold 96.30% of the cotton procured during the 2024–25 season through e-auctions.During the week from 29 December 2025 to 02 January 2026, CCI conducted regular online auctions for mills and traders across various centers. These auctions resulted in total weekly sales of approximately 2,02,100 bales, reflecting steady demand from both segments.Day-Wise Sales Report29 December 2025The week began on a strong note with the highest sales recorded at 84,700 bales. Of these, 28,000 bales were purchased by mills, while 56,700 bales were bought by traders.30 December 2025CCI sold 70,200 bales on this day, with mills lifting 26,300 bales and traders purchased 43,900 bales.31 December 2025Total sales stood at 27,700 bales. Mills accounted for 10,100 bales, while traders purchased 17,600 bales.01 January 2026Sales dropped sharply to 7,100 bales, comprising 4,300 bales purchased by mills and 2,800 bales by traders.02 January 2026The week concluded on a modest note with 12,400 bales sold. Of this, mills purchased 8,100 bales, whereas traders bought 4,300 bales.With these weekly sales, CCI’s total cotton sales for the ongoing season have reached approx 96,30,200 bales, representing 96.30% of its total procurement under the 2024–25 season. read more:-   China's major decision: Tariff cuts on cotton and wool.

China's major decision: Tariff cuts on cotton and wool.

China to Slash Tariffs on Strategic Cotton, Wool, and Fur by 2026 for Textile Boost.The Asian giant facilitates the sourcing of raw materials for its textile industry. China will apply reduced tariffs during 2026 to a total of 935 imported products, including key inputs for the textile and leather industry, according to the plan approved by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council and published by the Chinese Ministry of Finance.According to the official document, “provisional tariffs will be applied to 935 imported products, excluding those subject to quotas.“ The measure will come into force on January 1st, 2026 and will be extended for the whole year, with possible adjustments in subsequent years.In the textile industry, the most relevant reductions affect cotton, one of the country’s main inputs. Uncarded and uncombed cotton and carded or combed cotton will see their most-favored-nation (Mfn) tariff reduced from 6% to a provisional 1%. However, certain volumes of out-of-quota cotton will be managed through a staggered tariff, as stated in the document: “for a certain amount of imported out-of-quota cotton, a provisional tariff will continue to be applied through a staggered system”.In-quota wool and cotton imported into China will have a tariff reduction from 6% to 1%Wool, both raw and in intermediate stages of processing, will also benefit from the cuts. Uncarded and uncombed, greaseless and scoured wool will be reduced from 6% to a provisional 1%, while combed and top-spun wool will have its rate reduced from 8% to 3%, a measure that could favor the supply of industrial spinning.The plan is complemented by additional reductions under existing free trade agreements, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which groups China and 14 Asia-Pacific countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, as well as bilateral agreements with countries such as Switzerland, Serbia and Chile. According to the official document, “in accordance with the 24 free trade agreements and preferential agreements with 34 trading partners, the preferential tariff rate will continue to be applied to products imported from these partners”, reinforcing the competitiveness of their imports vis-à-vis other global production poles.Countries with free trade agreements or preferential agreements with China will benefit from additional tariff discounts in 2026From a strategic perspective, these measures make key inputs cheaper and consolidate China’s position as a global textile processing center, with advantages in spinning, weaving and tanning, as well as in the integration of the local production chain. For European industry, the adjustment could imply greater competitive pressure, although it could also open up opportunities to integrate Chinese suppliers into strategic supply chains.The plan approved by the Customs Tariff Commission of the Chinese State Council is part of the country’s annual tariff adjustment, which includes 935 products under provisional tariffs, maintains quota systems for products such as wheat and fertilizers, and continues to apply tariff preferences to less developed countries for certain products. read more:- Rupee fell 21 paise to close at 90.19 per dollar

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