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CAI lowers cotton crop forecast for 2022-23 season to 29.8 million bales

CAI lowers cotton crop forecast for 2022-23 season to 29.8 million balesThe Cotton Association of India (CAI) on Thursday cut its cotton crop forecast by 465,000 bales to 29.8 million bales for the 2022-23 season as production is expected to decline in Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Odisha. The latest estimate of cotton crop is the lowest since 2008-09 season at 29.0 million bales.At the start of the season, the association had estimated cotton crop production at 34.4 million bales as against 30.7 million bales in the previous season. CAI's latest crop down revision is against its March estimate of 31.3 million bales.The reason for the continuous cut in the estimates is being attributed to lower cotton offtake due to change in weather patterns. “3-4 pickings of cotton were expected in states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana. However, only two selections have taken place so far, said a Mumbai-based industry expert, seeking anonymity.Besides this, it is also estimated that farmers are holding their produce in the hope of remunerative prices as in the previous year. Cotton prices have crossed ₹100,000 per candy (1 candy = 365 kg) in the 2021-22 season. Currently, cotton is trading in the range of Rs 59,000-62,000 per candy in key markets of Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh and Rs 61,900 per candy on the Multi Commodity Exchange.Due to less attractive prices compared to last year, this year's arrivals have come down to 17.86 million bales so far in the current season that started October, as against 24.4 million bales during the same period last year.“Domestic ginners and spinners are working in face-to-face conditions as farmers are bringing less produce. This is the reason why the market is range bound. Prices are not going up or down," said Ajay Kedia, director of Kedia Commodities, a financial services firm on commodities.As far as the demand-supply dynamics are concerned, prices should move up amid reduction in cotton production. "Despite the decline, cotton prices in the domestic markets have not picked up due to sluggish demand amid fears of a slowdown," Kedia said. Cotton prices were maintained in the domestic market as well." Bangladesh is the largest buyer of Indian cotton.CAI has retained its cotton import forecast at 1.5 million bales as against 1.4 million bales recorded last year. According to CAI data, around 700,000 bales have arrived at Indian ports so far this year. On the other hand, exports are estimated to decline by 500,000 bales to 2 million bales in the 2022-23 (October-September) season.The estimated domestic cotton consumption for this season is around 31.1 million bales, as against 31.8 million bales last year. Total availability of cotton is estimated at 34.5 million bales, which includes opening stock of 3.2 million bales and imports of 1.5 million bales. However, this left an estimated production of 29.8 million bales. The carryover stock at the end of the season is estimated at 1.4 million bales.

The effect of bad weather on farming, cotton sowing season will last longer

The effect of bad weather on farming, cotton sowing season will last longerThe cotton sowing season may last longer this year, but the cash crop acreage is expected to remain low. Reason: Farmers are worried about frequent changes in weather.So far, about 9,850 hectares of cotton are sown in Muktsar district. Normally the crop is sown by mid-May, but this year the weather is relatively cool and sowing will continue till the end of May.Last year the crop was sown in about 33,000 hectares. However, the target was to bring about 45,000 hectares under cotton cultivation. This year the agriculture department has set a target of 50 thousand hectares in Muktsar district. Teams are going door to door to promote cotton sowing.Some farmers say that the cost of harvesting cotton is too high and requires extensive human labour. “Most of the farmers are worried due to the weather. He has also expressed his concern to the officials and commission agents. Cotton crops will be sown, but mainly in areas where paddy cultivation is not recommended. The cotton crop area may be less this year,” claimed a farmer.On this, Muktsar Chief Agricultural Officer (CAO) Gurpreet Singh said, 'Due to the change in weather, cotton sowing will continue till the end of May this time. We have decided to bring 50,000 hectares under cotton cultivation in the district this year. So far, about 9,850 hectares have been sown and sowing is now at its peak.”

“Golden Opportunity” for NCDEX players

“Golden Opportunity” for NCDEX playersWe are pleased to inform you that NCDEX has recently introduced a modified Cotton Futures contract on its platform. This is an exciting development for the cotton industry in India, and we would like to invite you to participate in this market. We already have one active contract available in Cotton & Cottonseed Cake in NCDEX.Cotton is one of the most important cash crops in India, and its trading on the NCDEX platform provides a transparent and efficient mechanism for price discovery, risk management and hedging. The modified cotton futures contract on NCDEX has been designed to meet the needs of the cotton industry and provide better risk management tools to market participants.By trading Modified Cotton futures contract on NCDEX, you can benefit from the following advantages:Improved risk management: The modified cotton futures contract provides market participants with improved risk management tools, such as reduced lot sizes, which allow for more accurate hedging.Price Transparency & Discovery: NCDEX provides real time price information on Cotton Futures, which helps you in making informed trading decisions.Easy and Efficient Trading: Trading on NCDEX is easy and efficient with low transaction costs and margin requirements.We invite you to start trading Modified Cotton Futures contracts on our platform. As a client of NCDEX, you will have access to a variety of trading tools and resources to help you succeed in the cotton futures market.If you have any questions or require more information on how to become a member of NCDEX and start trading Modified Cotton Futures contracts, please feel free to contact us.Thank you for your time, and we look forward to your participation in the Cotton Futures market on NCDEX

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