Change in monsoon: Heavy rain expected in Terai areas
2025-07-29 16:21:25
Break-in-Monsoon Conditions Likely: Heavy Rainfall Along Foothills Expected
As anticipated, the remnants of Typhoon Wipha have evolved into a significant monsoon system over the Bay of Bengal. After moving through eastern and central India, the system has weakened into a feeble low-pressure area currently positioned over North Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan. It is expected to dissipate over the hills of Uttarakhand in the next 2–3 days.
Between 29th and 31st August 2025, this low-pressure system and the associated convergence zone will bring heavy rainfall to West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, and parts of Gujarat. Following this, the system will curve northward toward the Himalayan foothills, weakening and eventually merging with the larger monsoon flow. The monsoon trough will also shift northward along the foothills, stretching from Punjab and Haryana through West Uttar Pradesh, Nepal border regions, Bihar, Sikkim–Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, and Assam & Meghalaya.
This marks the onset of a Break-in-Monsoon — a phase where the monsoon trough shifts entirely to the Himalayan foothills. During this period, rainfall becomes concentrated along these regions, while much of the rest of the country experiences a lull in monsoon activity. Notably, rainfall along the foothills occurs in narrow, east–west aligned zones (300–400 km wide), though the eastern stretches—particularly Sikkim, North Bengal, and Northeast India—tend to receive more consistent and widespread rain.
Elsewhere, the monsoon weakens significantly. While Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh may see isolated showers, the West Coast typically remains dry. Heavy rains over Bihar and the adjoining plains raise the risk of flooding, especially due to swollen rivers originating in Nepal and Tibet. The Brahmaputra River may also rise, increasing flood risk across Assam and Northeast India.
A return to normal monsoon conditions will depend on the formation of a new system over the Bay of Bengal. Such systems help realign the monsoon trough southward and restore widespread rainfall activity across the country. However, a prolonged break can disrupt the seasonal rhythm, potentially affecting crops and water availability.
Forecast Summary (Next 24 Hours): Very heavy rain likely over East Rajasthan and adjoining West Madhya Pradesh
Light to moderate rain, with a few heavy spells, expected in Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and nearby regions.
