Shifting Monsoon Patterns Threaten Kharif Crops
Concerns regarding this year's Kharif crop yields have mounted due to weakening Southwest monsoon activity and uneven rainfall distribution. Although the situation improved slightly after a rainfall deficit of nearly 40% in late June, the country's rainfall remained 12% below the Long Period Average (LPA) as of August 13.
Crops such as soybean, maize, and paddy are currently at critical growth stages that directly influence final yields. Experts believe the next two weeks will be crucial for the crops.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture indicates that total Kharif sowing covered an area approximately 2% smaller than last year's. The acreage for paddy was down by 3.7%, arhar (pigeon pea) and maize by 4% each, cotton by 1%, and sugarcane by 0.5%. Final production will now largely depend on adequate moisture availability during August and September.
The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for August and September. While rainfall may remain near normal between August 13 and 19, monsoon activity is likely to weaken during the August 20–26 period. A northward shift of the monsoon trough is considered a primary reason for this trend.
As of August 13, the rainfall deficit in Central India was only 1%, whereas deficits of 11% in Northwest India, 20% in the Southern Peninsula, and 27% in East and Northeast India were recorded. Bihar faced a 39% deficit, while Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Punjab each recorded a 31% shortfall.
Experts emphasize that for agriculture, factors beyond total rainfall—such as timing, distribution, and soil moisture—are equally critical. Yields can be adversely affected by moisture stress during key phases: flowering and pod formation in soybeans, panicle emergence in paddy, and flowering and grain filling in maize. Cotton crops are vulnerable to damage from both drought and waterlogging. Therefore, rainfall conditions in August and September will play a crucial role in determining the final yield of Kharif crops.
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