India's cotton production expected to increase in 2025-26 despite decline in key states
India's cotton production is projected to be higher than last year in the 2025-26 season, starting in October. However, crop acreage has declined in key states like Maharashtra and Gujarat, and heavy rains in August have damaged standing crops in some areas.
Key State-wise Situation
* Gujarat: Acreage decreased from 23.66 lakh hectares to 20.82 lakh hectares (12% decline).
* Maharashtra: Acreage decreased from 40.81 lakh hectares to 38.44 lakh hectares.
* Telangana: Acreage increased from 18.11 lakh hectares to 18.51 lakh hectares.
* Karnataka: Acreage increased from 7.79 lakh hectares to 8.08 lakh hectares.
* Andhra Pradesh: A slight decrease, from 4.13 lakh hectares to 3.77 lakh hectares.
Production Estimates
According to trade associations, India's cotton production in 2025-26 could reach 32.5–34 million bales (each weighing 170 kg), up from 31.2 million bales in the current season.
* Karnataka: Increase from 2.4 to 3 million bales (25% increase).
* Andhra Pradesh: Increase from 1.25 to 1.7 million bales.
* Telangana: Increase from 5.0 to 5.3–5.5 million bales.
Total production in South India could reach 10.5 million bales, up from last year's 8.8 million bales, and offset the shortfall in other regions.
Market Impact
Cotton arrivals are expected to reach 30–35,000 bales per day by Dussehra, significantly higher than the current 10,000 bales. However, prices are under pressure due to increased production and imports.
The government has removed the 11% import duty until the end of the year to support the textile industry. Due to this, imports have reached a record 4.1 million bales in 2024-25 (up from 1.5 million bales last year). Imports are expected to exceed 2 million bales in October-December alone.
Raw cotton prices are trading below the MSP (₹5,500–7,000 per quintal). Recent rains in northern states have also affected fiber quality.
CCI's Role
The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has prepared for large-scale procurement at MSP. Operations will begin from October 1st through 550 centers in North India. CCI, which purchased 10 million bales last year, has a stock of 1.2 million bales this time.
Global Outlook
The USDA estimates that India's production will increase, while imports will decrease to 3.58 million bales and exports will increase to 1.664 million bales.
According to the ICAC, global production will decline from 25.9 million tons to 25.5 million tons. Production has been affected due to weather and pests in America, Pakistan and Sudan.
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