India’s Monsoon Delayed: Kerala Onset Now Expected in Early June
India’s southwest monsoon, which was expected to arrive early this year, has missed its anticipated May 26 onset over Kerala, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The revised forecast now places the monsoon’s arrival between June 2 and 4 — slightly later than the usual June 1 onset and nearly a week behind earlier projections.
The IMD had initially predicted an early arrival due to favourable atmospheric conditions, raising hopes of relief from the intense heatwave affecting large parts of the country. However, changing ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and atmospheric pressure systems altered the timeline.
For the IMD to officially declare the monsoon onset over Kerala, at least 60% of 14 designated weather stations in the state must record a minimum of 2.5 mm rainfall for two consecutive days, along with specific wind and cloud conditions. As of May 25, those requirements had not been met.
Despite the delayed declaration, Kerala has already been receiving significant rainfall. The IMD has issued yellow alerts for districts including Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, and Ernakulam, warning of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Similar alerts remain in place across Kerala and Lakshadweep through the week.
Meteorologists also note that even after the monsoon officially sets in, its early phase may remain weak, with slower-than-usual progress toward northern India and no immediate surge in rainfall.
Meanwhile, northern, central, and western parts of the country continue to battle severe heatwave conditions. Regions such as East Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha, East Madhya Pradesh, and West Rajasthan are among the worst affected. Delhi has repeatedly recorded temperatures above 45°C, while nighttime temperatures have remained close to 30°C, offering little relief.
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