Acreage Shifts, Uneven Rainfall To Hurt Cotton Output, Says ICRA.
A report by Icra noted that despite leading the world in acreage, the cotton sown area in India has been declining steadily as current levels are 20 per cent lower than the peak acreage levels of 2021. Despite a reduction in acreage, the cotton yield continues to rise, improving by 1.8 per cent YoY in CYi2026.(SIS)
However, cotton output is likely to dip by 1.7 per cent YoY to 29.2 million bales in CYi2026, according to the first advance estimates released by Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (DA&FW), taking the output to its lowest levels in the last 10 years. Icra added that domestic consumption, on the other hand, is expected to remain flat.
“While domestic demand is stable, the effects of tariffs levied by the United States (US) on Indian apparel exports, on the downstream sectors is likely to affect overall consumption. Amidst lower cotton output, the dependence on cotton imports has been rising, up 85 per cent on a YoY basis to 1.5 million bales of 170 kilogram in 5MFY26. Imports now meet over 10 per cent of demand,” the report highlighted.(SIS)
Icra pointed out that due to weak demand and import duty waiver, cotton prices have been trading marginally below the minimum support price (MSP) since Nov 2024. MSP on cotton increased by 8 per cent for the cotton crop year 2026. Following a flat trend in H1FY26, domestic cotton fibre prices fell by 3 per cent month-on-month (MoM) in November 2025. Against this, average cotton yarn prices fell by 4 per cent, thus moderating the contribution levels from Rs 103 per kg in H1FY26 to Rs 96 per kg in November 2025.(SIS)
Icra’s sample set of 13 companies, which accounts for 25 to 30 per cent of the industry's revenue, are expected to report a 4 to 6 per cent decline in revenues on a YoY basis in the current fiscal year.
