Drought Threatens 50–60% Drop in Cotton Production; Import Duty Waivers Heighten Farmers' Concerns
Ichalkaranji: Due to drought conditions, a sharp decline in cotton production is expected this year. Fields that typically yield 10 quintals of cotton per acre are now projected to produce only 4 to 5 quintals. Meanwhile, the central government’s decision to waive import duties on foreign cotton has sparked concerns among farmers regarding domestic market prices. Both the farming community and the broader textile industry are likely to be impacted by the combination of low production and the prospect of cheaper imports.
Cotton yields are expected to reach only 40–50% of normal levels due to the drought. Although the quality of this year’s crop is reported to be good—with fiber lengths exceeding 30 millimeters—the reduced output could negatively affect farmers' total income.
Currently, cotton is trading in the market at ₹8,500 to ₹9,000 per quintal. Anticipating further price increases, many farmers have chosen to store their produce rather than sell it immediately, hoping for better returns in the future.
On the other hand, the central government has decided to waive the 11% import duty on foreign cotton until the end of December 2026. This is likely to increase cotton imports from countries such as the United States, Egypt, Brazil, and Australia. If foreign cotton becomes available in the domestic market at a lower price, it could exert downward pressure on the prices of Indian cotton—further compounding the challenges for farmers already grappling with low yields.
Additionally, the textile industry is currently experiencing a slowdown. Many laborers—hailing from North India, as well as states like Bihar and Odisha—have returned to their home states for the Diwali and Chhath Puja festivals. This has disrupted operations in spinning mills and powerloom units. According to industry stakeholders, it may take another month to a month and a half for the operations of textile and spinning mills to return to normal. During this period, the availability of imported cotton in the country through the end of December 2026 will also become clearer. Consequently, imports are expected to have a significant impact on domestic cotton prices and the activities of the textile industry in the coming months.
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