Despite the reduction in acreage, cotton production is expected to range between 312 and 335 lakh bales (each weighing 170 kg).
Carry-forward stocks for the 2025-26 season are estimated at 60.59 lakh bales compared to 39.19 lakh bales last year due to higher imports.
Despite a reduction in acreage and concerns about production being affected by excessive rainfall in some regions, India's cotton production for the 2025-26 season, starting in October, is expected to range between 312 and 335 lakh bales (each weighing 170 kg).
Arrivals of the new crop have picked up in various states this week, with daily arrivals estimated to exceed 1 lakh bales. Raw cotton prices are trading below the minimum support price (MSP) due to weak demand.
Due to higher imports, carry-forward stocks for the 2025-26 season are estimated at 60.59 lakh bales, up from 39.19 lakh bales a year ago.
Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul S. Ganatra said the 2025-26 crop is in good shape and official crop estimates will be announced in the last week of October. All 10 state associations believe the crop is good. A minimum of 312 lakh bales and a maximum of 335 lakh bales are expected at 170 kg per bale, as yields are expected to be higher in Gujarat and Maharashtra. "We have called a meeting in the last week of October to estimate the new crop," he said.
Kharif Acreage
Cotton acreage declined to 110 lakh hectares (LH) this Kharif season from 112.97 lakh hectares last year, as a section of farmers shifted to other crops like maize and oilseeds. Daily arrivals have picked up and crossed the 1 lakh mark this week. Ganatra said, "New crop arrivals are increasing every day. In the last four days, arrivals have been more than 1 lakh bales since Monday. The total arrival on Thursday was 1.17 lakh bales."
CAI has maintained its pressure estimate for the recently concluded 2024-25 season at 312.40 lakh bales. Based on feedback from its member associations, CAI estimates total supply to be 392.59 lakh bales by the end of September. This includes a pressing demand of 312.40 lakh bales, imports of 41 lakh bales, and an opening stock of 39.19 lakh bales. Consumption by the end of the 2024-25 cotton season is estimated at 314 lakh bales and exports at 18 lakh bales (28.36 lakh bales in the previous season).
End-season stocks are estimated at 60.59 lakh bales, including 31.50 lakh bales held by textile mills and 29.09 lakh bales held by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), the Maharashtra Federation, and others (multinational companies, traders, ginners, and exporters), including cotton sold but not delivered.
Ramanuj Das Boob, a sourcing agent in Raichur, said the crop size could be around 320 lakh bales. Daily arrivals have picked up, but have failed to boost market sentiment due to sluggish demand. Large buyers have covered their positions for the next few months from CCI's recent sales and have also entered into contracts for duty-free imports.
Prices for good quality raw cotton are in the range of ₹6,500-7,300 per quintal, well below the MSP of ₹8,100. CCI has been actively purchasing at MSP in some areas of North India. Procurement is likely to begin in Central and South India after Diwali, which could provide a support to prices. However, trade is primarily driven by the ICE market and yarn demand, he said.
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