Cotton acreage is likely to increase in 2026 due to inflation and El Niño.
By yash chouhan 2026-03-31 10:59:12
Rising Prices and El Niño Forecast Likely to Lift India’s Cotton Acreage in 2026
India’s cotton acreage is expected to expand significantly in the 2026 kharif season, driven by a recovery in domestic prices, improving global demand, and the likelihood of an El Niño-induced weak monsoon. Industry stakeholders estimate that the area under cotton cultivation could rise by 10–20%, reversing last year’s decline when farmers shifted to alternative crops like pulses and maize.
Sowing preparations have already begun in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, with planting expected to commence shortly. According to industry experts, better price realization—well above the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of ₹8,100 per quintal—has encouraged farmers. If the MSP increases further to around ₹8,600, cotton could become even more attractive. Additionally, cotton’s relatively low water requirement makes it a preferred choice during years of deficient rainfall, a likely scenario under El Niño conditions.
Farmers in Maharashtra have also reported improved yields after adopting HTBT seeds, with production projected to rise sharply. This combination of higher yields and better prices is expected to further boost farmer confidence.
Despite the positive outlook, overall cotton output in 2025–26 declined slightly, reflecting reduced acreage. However, 2026 may mark a turning point. Rising crude oil prices are increasing the cost of synthetic fibres, potentially restoring cotton’s competitiveness in the textile sector. This shift could benefit millions of cotton farmers and revive the broader cotton value chain.
Globally, the trend contrasts with India’s outlook. Major producers such as the US and Australia are expected to reduce cotton acreage due to rising cultivation costs and lower profitability. Estimates suggest a modest decline in US acreage and reduced output in Australia due to water constraints.
While favourable prices and weather dynamics support expansion, experts stress that policy reforms and technological advancements will be crucial to sustaining long-term growth in India’s cotton sector.
