Brazil Will Overtake the US as the Leading Cotton Exporter
Brazil is poised to become the world’s leading cotton exporter in the 2023-24 season, overtaking the United States, which has held the top spot for decades. This shift follows an over 80% surge in Brazilian cotton shipments this season, according to the local exporters’ association, Anea.
With just a month remaining in the 2023-24 cycle, Brazil's ascension to the number one exporter position is now certain, driven by record production, strong demand from Asian countries, and a significant drop in US output due to adverse weather conditions.
It happened a little earlier than we imagined,” said Anea head Miguel Faus. “The main reason is the failure of the US crop, while Brazilian production increased.
Faus predicts that Brazil's exports could rise further in the next season, as farmers are set to harvest another record crop, with expectations of continued growth into 2025-26. In the medium term, Brazil will consolidate itself in this leadership position,” he said.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently increased its forecast for Brazil’s cotton exports by 300,000 bales to 12.4 million bales, while cutting the US forecast by 500,000 bales to 11.8 million bales.
A USDA report noted that the US had led global cotton exports since the early 1990s. However, Brazil surpassed the US in production in 2023-24, ranking third globally behind China and India, a position expected to continue in 2024-25.
Brazil has also been increasing its exports of other commodities, including corn and coffee. While it remains the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, Faus noted that Brazil's influence in the cotton market, though significant, is more balanced. In the case of cotton, the forces are more balanced… But of course, if Brazil’s production rises or falls, the market will be paying attention, he said.
Key buyers of Brazilian cotton include China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Pakistan.
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