In 2022, Vietnam's economy is projected to grow by 8.02% year-on-year, which exceeded expectations. But by early 2023, exports have shrunk, slowing economic growth. Vietnam is one of the world's largest exporters of clothing, footwear and furniture, but in the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam is facing "volatile and complex developments in the world economy".
The deceleration in GDP growth was mainly due to a decrease in consumer demand. Overseas sales decreased 14.8% year-on-year in March, and exports fell 11.9% in the first quarter, a sharp turnaround from last year. In 2022, Vietnam's exports of goods and services are expected to be US$384.75 billion. Among them, merchandise exports were US$371.85 billion, up 10.6% over the previous year. Services exports were around US$12.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 145.2%.
The World Trade Organization predicts that global merchandise trade will grow by 1.7% in 2023. This growth is lower than the 2.7% growth rate expected in 2022 and below the average growth rate of 2.6% over the past 12 years. However, this figure was higher than the 1.0% forecast made in October last year.
A key factor is the easing of China's epidemic control policy, which is expected to release consumer demand and in turn boost international trade. In the latest report, the WTO's forecasts for both trade and GDP growth are lower than their averages over the past 12 years (2.6% and 2.7%, respectively).
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