Private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Monday said that India is likely to get "below normal" monsoon rains in 2023 with an increasing likelihood of El Nino, which usually brings dry weather in Asia. Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, said in a statement: "The probability of El Nino is increasing and it is becoming a dominant feature during the monsoon. The return of El Nino can predict a weak monsoon." Retaining its earlier outlook of sub-monsoon, Skymet said monsoon rainfall over India is expected to be 94% of the long period average.
About half of India's agricultural land, which has no irrigation cover, depends on annual June–September rains to grow crops such as rice, maize, sugarcane, cotton and soybeans. Skymet expects the northern and central parts of the country to be at risk of rain deficiency. New Delhi defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average of 88 centimeters (35 in) for the four-month season starting in June. The state-run India Meteorological Department is expected to announce its annual monsoon forecast soon.
The weather forecaster said Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, known as the agricultural bowl of northern India, are likely to receive below normal rainfall during the second half of the season. Meanwhile, unseasonal rains and hailstorms have damaged ripening, winter-sown crops like wheat in India's fertile northern, central and western plains, hurting thousands of farmers and raising the risk of further food price inflation Is.
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