"India Braces for Above-Normal Heat Waves and El Nino Impact: IMD Forecasts for March-May"
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued forecasts for the upcoming months, anticipating higher-than-usual heat wave days across most parts of India from March to May. The El Nino climate pattern is expected to worsen heat wave conditions during this period. However, northeast India, the western Himalayan region, and the southwest peninsula may see fewer heat wave days.
In March, the IMD predicts an elevated number of heat wave days in peninsular India, many parts of Maharashtra, and some areas of Odisha and adjoining regions. Additionally, above-normal minimum temperatures are expected nationwide during March to May. The onset of hot weather is projected to begin in southern states in March, signaling the commencement of summer in India.
Contrastingly, normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are anticipated over large parts of east and east-central India, along with portions of the northwestern regions in March. Furthermore, the IMD expects rainfall to be above normal at 117% of the long period average over India in March.
Last month, India experienced 13% below normal rainfall, with the southern peninsula receiving rainfall at 91% below normal. The IMD notes that this was the fourth lowest recorded rainfall in February since 2001 in southern parts of the country.
Looking ahead, El Nino conditions are expected to gradually weaken in the coming months, reaching neutral conditions over India by the beginning of the monsoon season (Jun-Sep). Neutral conditions bode well for the country, as El Nino is associated with deficient precipitation in India.
While India received normal rainfall last year, two homogenous regions out of four reported below-normal precipitation, affecting the sowing of key kharif crops such as rice and pulses in 2023-24. The IMD suggests that La Nina conditions may prevail in the latter half of the upcoming monsoon season, potentially leading to improved rainfall compared to the previous year. La Nina represents the cool phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle and is associated with favorable conditions for rainfall in India.
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